COVID-19 infection mortality rate among genders, residence and age groups; along with its correlation to comorbidities, in Thi-Qar provenance south of Iraq
Iraq had witnessed two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic during the years 2020 and 2021, with date-dependent fluctuations of the mortality rate. However, Thi-Qar governorate, like all other Iraqi governorates, had witnessed the two waves of the pandemic attacks.Methodology: This study evaluates and statistically analyzes the mortality rate, taking into account the influences of gender, age, the date of death, and the city or district of residence. Mortality) are categorized according to gender, method of diagnosis, date of passing out, and age group and evaluated during the study period extending from February 2020 to April 2022.Results: The study has shown that of the 2129 victims who passed out, 59.4% are males and 40.6% are females, with an age range of a few days to 110 years old, yet around 75.5% are positive for RT-CPR, while the others are diagnosed using CT- scans, X-ray radiological examinations, and clinical examinations, of which 73.23% are admitted as severe cases. In fact, there is no statistically significant correlation between the gender of the victims and the diagnosis method used (p_value: 0.77), but there is a very highly significant relation (P_value < 0.0001) between the mortality rate and method of diagnosis. Remarkably, 99.9% of the mortality cases were unvaccinated; besides, the mortality rate is 91.73 deaths/100,000, or 9.173/million, of population, while the case fatality rate was 2.067%, which is as double as the Iraq case fatality rate at the end of March 2022, which was 1.086%, where there is a statistically significant relation between mortalities, gender, and residence district (p_value: 0.022), particularly for males and females of both Marshlands/east and intermediate north districts of Thi-Qar, which has the greatest contribution to total fatalities. However, there is no statistically significant correlation between mortalities gender and the city of residence, although both Al-Nasiriya, followed by Al-Shatra cities, have the greatest contribution to the total number of fatalities. In addition, there is no significant relation between mortalities age group and gender (p_value: 0.09), as well as the district of residence (p_value: 0.898), yet age group mortalities have a highly significant relation (p_value: 0.003) with the city of residence, where both Al-Nasiriya followed by Al-Shatra as cities of residence have the greatest contribution to the total number of fatalities, although in the three cases, the age group of over 65 years old has the greatest contribution to the total fatalities. Remarkably, it has been found that according to 10-15-year-old dividing of age groups up to 65 years old, there is no statistically significant relation between mortalities, gender, and comorbidity (p_value: 0.717), although co-morbidity combinations such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and respiratory diseases have a significantly greater contribution to the total fatalities on the one hand, yet there is a very high significant relation between mortalities, age group, and comorbidity (p_value: < 0.001), particularly those of 55-65 and over 65 years old on the other hand. Meanwhile, it is worthy to note that according to 15-year dividing of age groups for those below 44 years old and 20 years old for those 45 years old, there is a very significant relation between the victims age group and co-morbidities (p-value < 0.001), although there is no statistically significant correlation between the victims age group and gender, residence city, and residence district with corresponding p-values of 0.069, 0.939, and 0.375, respectively. During the two successive years of the pandemic 2020 and 2021, two pairs of mortality rate peaks escalations have been observed, one pair for each year. The summer peak started in May of the two years and declined to the base line in autumn in both years, preceded by a winter-to-spring peak. However, characteristic troughts have been observed occurring approximately at the same interval (October), just after the end of the imam Al-Hussein Bin Ali Ziyarat AL-Arbaeen rituals that had involved several hundred thousand to millions of the pilgrims in close proximity to each other, and continuing to around a three-month interval in contrast to what was expected of gathering and approximation negative impact on COVD-19 infection expansion/acquisition.Conclusion: The variations in fatality rates between genders could be related to gene-related hormonal influences on the victims immune surveillance; however, the variations in fatalities among residence districts and cities are residence population-attributed incidence rate, ethnic, race, educational, as well as personal hygiene-attributed variations. The remarkable difference in monthly mortality pattern between the year 2020 of the pandemic and 2021 encourages presuming the arising/involvement of a new SARS-CoV-2 virus strain in the second year, although it was probably less virulent than that of the first one. However, there is no significant correlation between the mortalities and the date of death among the two genders.