The construction sector, like many other manufacturing industries, is almost as old as nature itself and it focuses mostly on one-off projects. The industry is very susceptible to changes in both fiscal and monetary conditions. It is crucial in the development of a nation's infrastructure, particularly in developing countries and it is also important in the growth of a nation's economy, particularly in a country like Nigeria.

Costing, time constraints, quality expectations and contractual conflicts in tender contracts are all major risks in the construction industry. Before stipulating a price during the tendering process, it is critical for the contractor to assess risk and cost estimates. To win and make profit for the company, the price must be acceptable [2].

Construction risk is defined as the exposure of a project to financial loss as a result of unforeseen events or foreseeing for which uncertainty was not adequately accommodated [3]. Unknown risk refers to a situation in which a contractor or client estimates the risk and makes a temporary payment to cover the uncertainty value. As a result, before the contractor tenders the project, a proper assessment and calculation of the risk's impact must be made and justified in the tender price.

Construction as a construction process variable whose variation causes uncertainty about the project's final cost, length and quality [4]. In light of these findings, he regards risk as a psychological phenomenon that has significance in terms of human reactions and experiences, as well as an objective phenomenon that may or may not be recognized in terms of human reactions and experiences. Because of inherent risks during estimating, which may likely result in uncertainty as to the ultimate variable cost of the project and models, finding a project in which the initial contract sum is not surpassed at the completion time has become extremely difficult. In the Nigerian construction business, there is a risk that the project may be abandoned if proper precautions are not followed, because estimating productivity without a baseline is difficult. The cost unit of the project will rise to reflect anticipated design and build or construction management challenges that will affect the project's cost and benefit.

The study's goal was to find out what professionals thought about the impact of risk estimation on a contractor's tender figure for a public building project, in order to ensure that projects were delivered on time. The study's goals are to identify the many types of estimating risk that affect a contractor's tender figure, as well as the price elements that contractors evaluate and to find out how construction experts view the impact of estimating risk on a contractor's tender figure. The purpose of this study is to see how risk estimation affects a contractor's tender figure for a public building project in Birnin Kebbi, Kebbi State. The primary aim is important construction industry participants such as architects, builders, quantity surveyors, civil engineers, mechanical engineers and electrical engineers. This research aims to prove that materials availability, the client's type and financial capability, as well as the project's risk, are all critical aspects that contractors must consider when estimating construction projects.

Contractors can also improve their risk management by considering financial risk, construction risk and design risk when constructing public buildings.

Literature

Risk in Construction Tender

Construction projects are inextricably linked to risks [5]. Construction risk is defined as the exposure of construction activities to economic loss as a result of unforeseen or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not adequately accommodated [6]. Physical risk, environmental risk, logistics risk, financial risk, legal risk and political risk are all risk factors that must be considered whenever a construction project is undertaken [7]. Many contractors have been compelled to reassess their approach to risk management as construction projects have become more complicated and dynamic in nature, as well as the advent of new procurement procedures are treated within their projects and organizations. Despite the fact that the construction business, maybe more than any other, is plagued with risk, the risks are not appropriately managed, resulting in poor performance, increased costs and time delays. Changes in work, late payment on a contract, financial failure of the owner, labor disputes, labor, equipment and material availability, labor productivity, defective materials, equipment productivity, safety, poor quality of work, unforeseen site conditions, financial failure of the contractor, political uncertainty, changes in government regulation, permits and ordinances, delays in resolving litigation/arbitration disputes, political uncertainty and force majeure are all risks that contractors face.

Impact of Risk on Construction Tender Figure

Because of the specific qualities and complexity of construction activities, including as extended periods of time, intricate procedures, a deplorable environment, financial intensity and dynamic organizational structures, the construction business, like many other industries, faces more risks. As a result, assessing and estimating risk to manage hazards associated with unpredictable construction operations has never been more critical to a project's success.

"Construction projects are exposed to risks at all stages of their development," the report stated. Planning authorization can be difficult to come by and plans may not be complete before construction begins. These dangers can be handled, reduced, shared, transferred, or accepted, but they can't be ignored [8]. For time and cost analysis, the focus has traditionally been on quantitative risk analysis based on estimating probabilities and probability distributions. However, unhappiness with this type of approach's failure to handle subjectivity in risk assessments has prompted study into alternative techniques. Risk quantification and modeling are currently being used by businesses to increase communication, teamwork and risk-response planning among interdisciplinary project team members [9].

Construction project risk communication, on the other hand, is often poor, incomplete and inconsistent, both throughout the construction supply chain and throughout the project lifespan. Even when risk management is done, it is usually done on an ad hoc, un-formalized basis and it appears to be dependent on the abilities, expertise and risk-aversion of individual key project participants. Because of the lack of formality and the widespread use of risk management by individuals, numerous approaches and terminologies are common.

Risk means different things to different people and the concept of risk varies depending on one's perspective, attitudes and experiences. Engineers, designers and contractors look at risk from a technological standpoint; lenders and developers look at it from an economic and financial standpoint; and health professionals, environmentalists and chemical engineers look at it from a safety and environmental standpoint. The 'probability of failure, or the possibility of meeting danger, or of incurring harm or loss is how risk is defined. As a result of the uncertainty involved with pursuing a particular course of action, risk is exposure to the prospect of economic or financial loss or gain, bodily damage or injury, or delay [10,11]. Risk is also described as the uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of certain events [12]. Risk is a construction variable in the construction process whose variation causes uncertainty about the project's final cost, length and quality [13]. In light of these definitions, he regards risk as a psychological phenomenon that has meaning in terms of human reactions and experiences, as well as an objective phenomenon that may or may not be recognized in terms of human reaction and experiences (Figure 1).

Figure 1: The Three Stages of Risk Management

(Source: John and Peter)

Risk Management Process in Construction

Risk management should be seen as a separate process in project management, yet it is intertwined with all project activities and phases. There are various proposals for improving the project risk management process; the risk management process should be implemented during the early stages of the project, while fundamental modifications are still possible [14-17].

The project should be thoroughly examined to determine which methodologies to employ throughout certain project phases and a process should be tailored to all project aspects. The goal of risk management is to guarantee that decisions are well-informed and unbiased. The management of uncertainty determined that there are three basic risk management processes: risk identification, risk estimation and risk response planning and execution.

Risk Identification

Risk identification is significant because it aids in the early stages of project assessment by directly identifying project restrictions and providing helpful data to aid in the selection of different projects. According to them, risk identification serves as a foundation for determining the proper organizational structure, bidding procedure, contract type and risk allocation through contract documents. The project team and those involved in the project can be encouraged to recognize possible areas of risk and benefit by doing the following:

• Brainstorming

• Drawing on previous project experience and lessons

• Modeling potential risk events using the project network

Before analysis, response and reporting, the first stage is to identify and analyze the risk associated with a project. It is of direct aid in determining project restrictions during the early stages of project appraisal. It is claimed that the individual whose duty it is to detect risk must have access to risk identification tools. The practice of reviewing program areas and essential technical procedures to identify and document associated hazards is known as risk identification. The following are the several types of risk.

Design Risks

Traditionally, the customer bears the majority of design risks and the client's project budget should include some contingency. It's tough to predict production and potential delays without a solid foundation. Contractors change their production rates or unit charges to reflect anticipated issues than ncluding contingency [18]. It is typical in design-build or construction management to incorporate additional monies to account for unknowns and challenges. This type of contingency is used to cover specific work-related risks rather than the overall project risk. Without correct contract language, contractors would incorporate contingency clauses in the event of scope modifications. However, proper allocation in the altered conditions clause is the recommended way for dealing with scope changes. Changes in scope are analogous to changes in site conditions and design (Figure 2):

• Indicates an unacceptably high danger that must be eliminated or decreased promptly

• Indicates a risk that is not entirely unbearable but should be eliminated or reduced as soon as possible. In most cases, target dates for executing countermeasures should be established to avoid unacceptable delays

• Indicates a danger that is bearable but should be removed or decreased as soon as possible

• Denotes a risk that can be taken as it is

• Indicates an unacceptably high danger that must be eliminated or decreased promptly

• Indicates a risk that is not entirely unbearable but should be eliminated or reduced as soon as possible. In most cases, target dates for executing countermeasures should be established to avoid unacceptable delays

• Indicates a danger that is bearable but should be removed or decreased as soon as possible

• Denotes a risk that can be taken as it is

Financial Risks

The contractor is responsible for project-related financial risks, with the exception of the owner's total project funding. Pre-qualification can help the owner lessen the risk of contractor default, while performance and payment bonds are more directly focused at moving the risk to the surety.

In the event of contract default, the contractor faces a significant risk. They can reduce this risk by carefully selecting tasks and avoiding endeavors in which they lack experience. Poorly constructed estimates are a common source of financial risk for contractors [19].

Figure 2: Prioritization of Project Risk

Source: Partrick et al. [18]

Figure 3: Transfer of Project Risk

Source: [21]

Risk in Estimation

After the hazards have been identified, they must be assessed in terms of their likelihood and severity. Because most projects have limited resources for risk management, focusing on addressing the key risks is critical. Prioritization requires accurate evaluations of likelihoods and effects. A quantitative or qualitative analysis can be used to estimate risks.

The most frequent methods are to evaluate risk likelihood and impact on basic scales, such as 1 to 5 or high to low and to establish limits numerically. The huge volume of risk data from these two phases should be arranged to aid in the interpretation and comprehension of the later risk management activities [20].

Public Project Definition

The term 'public project' is a bit of a misnomer, but in basic terms, it refers to a government-funded initiative that is typically owned and controlled by the government. This could include major infrastructure projects like roads, bridges, dams, railways, tunnels and so on, as well as public amenities like hospitals, schools, jails, libraries and recreation centers.

Because public projects are primarily supported by tax dollars, they are held to a higher standard of scrutiny and greater transparency in the bidding and contract award processes is essential. Public projects frequently publicize their needs and solicit bids in an open and transparent manner, with submitted bids being considered in an open and transparent manner. The government can also require a supplier to meet particular requirements in order to be awarded a public contract, such as minimum pay levels, reporting systems and so on.

Risk Response

Because every project is different, the risk responses that have been found to be effective for managing risk in construction [21] are (Figure 3):

• Risk Avoidance or Reduction: The obvious first step is to avoid or reduce risk. It may be able to devise ways for avoiding specific risks while making only minimal adjustments to the project once the risks, particularly the sources of risks, have been recognized and studied

• Risk Transfer: Risk transfer entails moving risks from one partner to another while maintaining the project's overall risk level. Risk might be transferred between the project's participants

• Retention: Retaining a risk may be the sole option in some cases. The party carrying the risk may be the only one capable of managing the risk or accepting the consequences if the risk materializes [22]

The following is a list of risk management's specific contributions:

• Projects are improved by lowering operating expenses

• The quality of company management decisions is improved

• Loss exposures are identified and evaluated

• Management's total liability is reduced

There are risks in every aspect of life, including driving a car, crossing the street and participating in various sports. Everything we do can be associated with risk in the form of events that, if they occur, could prohibit us from achieving our stated goals. So it is in business, though in many cases such risk uncertainties are inherently coupled with a financial risk when compared to market volatility and so the capacity to legitimately deliver predictions based on a risk vs reward trade-off is limited. While the management of corporate financial risk is handled by a highly specialized risk discipline, here we look at risk management from the perspective of a project, business, or operation. Risks can be internally or externally driven and may impact on the project’s stated scope, schedule and cost objectives. The goals of risk management are to ensure that risks are discovered quickly inside the company and to develop a clear procedure for risk assessment, action planning and reporting. Furthermore, it is critical to devote time and attention to identifying opportunities, since this will enable effective decision-making to ensure that.

Business possibilities can be swiftly evaluated at the proper level in order to determine whether and how to proceed with them. Threats to the project or other aspects of the company's operations can be eradicated, or at the very least minimized, to a manageable level.

In Figure 4, the topic of risk management can be observed to have an impact on many aspects of a typical construction project. While the traditional view is that risk management is part of the project management function, carried out by the project manager or a delegated project team member, an alternative view is that if there were no risks in a project, there would be no need for project management and that the main purpose of project management is to manage the risks, leading to the term Risk-Driven Project Management.

Figure 4: Integrating Risk Management with other Project Management Functions

Source: Project Management Institute, Project and Program Risk Management

Tender and the Tendering Process

Tender refers to the Contractor's costed proposal to the Employer for the execution and completion of the Works, as well as the correction of any deficiencies, in line with the Contract's terms, as acknowledged by the Letter of Acceptance.

A tenderer's monetary, time and other requirements for completing a given construction project [23]. Tendering is a set of steps taken to create offers from a single bidder or a group of competitive bidders who are competing for a business, service, or supply of commodities. Tendering in the building and engineering business is a comprehensive and sophisticated procurement process that is also quite costly [24].

Tendering, particularly for large and complicated projects, can be a costly activity for both the employer and the tenderers, but it will be money well spent if the targets are met [25]. Many industry veterans will agree that a proper tendering process achieves two goals: (a) the Employer receives a competitive and realistic price for the project he intends to undertake and (b) the Contractor or Tender, after conducting due diligence prior to submitting his tender, fully understands the requirement or nature of the proposed work and the Employer's requirements. The time a contractor spends preparing a Tender helps the contractor grasp the nature of the project, which helps the project to be completed on schedule [26].

Competition Based on the Lowest Bid

The governmental sector is particularly tough to work with as a client because they are obligated to accept the lowest price. There is no way to consider entire expenses, such as those associated with potential relationship complexity or quality failures. As a result, there is little motivation for extra effort and few opportunities for development initiatives. Long-term partnerships are difficult to establish when project networks become short-lived.

Factors Affecting Contractors’ Pricing

The factors that affect contractors pricing are as follows;

Project Definition

The volume of project definition (tender documents) is the single most critical aspect that influences the tender's correctness. Because the effort spent estimating the cost is minimal and the proportion of possible error is large when the documentation is weak, contractors' prices are high to cover the expense of all the unknown risks involved with the project.

Contracting Plan

The first decision that the contractor must make is whether or not to tender. His selection will be influenced by his company's strategy and resources. The main factors that influence his judgment are usually manpower and cash availability. If the contractor is tempted to decline the offer but fears that doing so may jeopardize his prospects of being requested to tender again in the future, he may accept the invitation but take efforts to guarantee that his tender is not accepted [27].

Type of Development

If the type of development requires experience, technical understanding and execution, the contractor's tender price will be competitive. His tender price, on the other hand, may be expensive if he lacks the necessary expertise, technical knowledge and capacity to complete the project.

Labour Productivity Basis

People's abilities vary, just as their willingness to work does. Age, nutrition, temperature and humidity are all elements that affect labor productivity, but they are outside management's control. If a contracting organization's management establishes an enabling work environment and provides suitable welfare packages for its employees, this may permit improved labor productivity, which will benefit the contractor's tender price [28].

Material Availability

When a project's material component contains a large number of foreign materials, those materials must be imported, which will be reflected in the tender prices. When the majority of the materials specified in the project are not in stock or the source of supply is far away from the project location, the tender price will rise.

Volume of Building Projects with Back-Up Finance

Because most contractors will be busy and competition will be fierce when the market is booming with many building projects that the client has the backup money to complete, tender costs will almost certainly be at the highest possible level.

Contract Types

Lump sum contracts based on fluctuating prices are priced more cheaply than those based on firm prices [29], contracts where the project definition and contract documentation is well detailed and project risks well defined and isolated and where the client knows the contract sum before the commencement of the project result in the tender sum being competitive.

Management Ability

The most essential line function in the construction organization is site management, which is in charge of the most significant commitment of human and physical resources. If a contracting firm has good management, their tender price may be competitive; nevertheless, if their management is insufficient, this may have a negative impact on their control of construction resources, resulting in higher tender pricing [30].

Zonal Rates

Because building materials prices are not constant throughout Nigeria, rates in the construction business are determined by the project's location. As a result, if a contractor is competing for a project in an area with high construction material prices, the tender price will be high as well, but if the project is in an area with moderate pricing, the tender price will be competitive [31].

Method of Tender Selection and Degree of Competition

In general, the level of competition a contractor confronts when tendering is determined by the tender selection technique used. Open competition, selected competition, or negotiated competition are all options. Contractors tend to keep their mark-ups low in open competitive tendering, where the number of rivals is infinite, resulting in low bids in the hopes of obtaining the contract [32].

Category of the Contractor

The tender price is affected by the contractor's category. Contractors with higher overheads are known to charge more than contractors with lower overheads [33,34]. As a result, it is suggested that only contractors in the same category be called to quote for a project that they are capable of handling.

Profitability

The size of a contractor's organizational structure will influence the amount of profit charged on a project. Contractors with a high overhead will allow a higher profit percentage than contractors with low overhead. As a result, if the profit margin is great, the tender price will be high; if the profit margin is moderate, the tender price will be competitive.

Workmanship Level

Some contractors use highly specialized labor to complete their projects. Skilled labor is expensive and this must be reflected in the tender price.

Government Policy

The government can raise the proportion of interest charged on building loans by changing its monetary policy. As a result, when contractors borrow money at such high interest rates as those imposed by banks, they pass those costs on to their tender prices. Contractors may then submit competitive tenders if the situation is reversed.

The study makes use of previous literature by order writers that is relevant to this investigation, as well as a closed- ended questionnaire to collect data from building contractors and building professionals in the study area.

Contractors and experts working on construction projects in Birnin Kebbi are the study's target groups. The study's sample includes 15 builders, 20 quantity surveyors, 12 architects and three contractors who were chosen at random from the study area, for a total of 50 people. This means that 50 people are chosen at random and each of them has an equal probability of responding the questionnaires. The information was gathered from a variety of construction industry specialists through the distribution of questionnaires. Architects, Quantity Surveyors, Builders, Civil Engineers, Electrical Engineers and Mechanical Engineers are among those that responded to the survey.

In order to accurately examine the findings obtained from the scoring of questionnaires and the testing of the study's goals and objectives. The data for this project was analyzed using descriptive statistics. The Relative Importance Index (RII) was used for two purposes: ranking and determining the significance of data. The ranking is based on the concept that the element with the highest Relative Index (RII) is rated first, followed by the others in descending order. It was utilized to look at the impact of the design risk variable and the political risk variable on the contractor's tender sum.

Questionnaires were utilized to collect the data for this section of the project. The respondents were given fifty (50) questionnaires and forty-two (42) were returned. As a result, the following steps were used in the data analysis. The weighted average formula is used to get the mean:

Where:

X  =    Means

X  =    Points on the Likert scale (1,2,3,4,5)

F  =    Frequency of respondent’s choice of each point on the scale

B =    Computing the Relative Importance Index (RII) for each item of interest, using formula

Where:

k  =  Maximum point on the Likert scale (in this case, k = 5)

C  =  Ranking of the items under consideration based on their RII values. The values with the highest RII value is ranked first (1) the net (2) and so on

D =  The interpretation of RII value as follow RII = >0.60, item is assessed to have high rating RII = ≥0.60≤0.80 item assessed to have very high rating. Analysis of respondent personal bio data (Tables 1-5).

Table 1: Respondents Profession

Source: Author’s Field Survey, (2021)

Table 2: Respondents Organization

Source: Author’s Field Survey, (2021)

Table 3: Extent of Occurrence of Design Risk on Contractor’s Tender Figure

Source: Author’s Field Survey, (2021)

Table 4: Extent of Occurrence of Financial Risk on Contractors’ Tender Figure

Source: Author’s field survey, (2021)

Table 5: Extent of Occurrence of Construction Risk on Contractors’ Tender Figure

Source: Author’s field survey, (2021)

Table 6: Extent of Occurrence of Political Risk on Contractors’ Tender Figure

Source: Author’s Field Survey, (2021)

Based on the analysis of the respondents in Table 6, contractor’s competence with (RII) (0.70) was ranked having the greatest extent of occurrence on contractors’ tender figure. Defective material and poor performance of supplier with (RII) (0.60) were ranked second respectively. Poor quality of work was ranked fourth with (RII) (0.57) and productivity of equipment ranked fifth with (RII) (0.56) and labour, material and equip. availability and unforeseen site condition were ranked sixth with (RII) (0.55).

The Table 6 shows their impact of political risk based on the ranking of Relative Important Indices (RII) political uncertainty and charges in government regulation were ranked first with (RII) 0.66, force majuer was ranked 4 with (RII) 0.48, permits and ordinances was ranked 4 with (RII) 0.57.

Table 4.7 factors Influencing Contractor’s Estimate

Sources: Authors’ Field Survey (2021)

Rank the following factors that according to their level of importance as occurred other specific project on a scale of 1-Not Important, 2-Somewhat Important, 3-little Important, 4-Important, 5-Very Important.

From the Table 7, the financial capability of client and likely trend in wage rates over the period of the contract, weather condition and carrying out the various work items and price inflation of construction materials are the major factors influencing contractors estimate in tender figure with the rank 1^st, follow by the occurrence of dispute with the rank 2^nd, variation of construction program with the rank 3^rd, excessive approval procedure in Administrative government department with the rank 4^th.

The findings revealed that defective design has the very high critical impact on the design risk on contractor’s tender sum. It also shows inflation has effect on the financial risk on contractor’s tender sum in Birnin Kebbi. The study further revealed that contractor’s competence is a factor of construction risk affecting contractors tender sum. Political uncertainty is the most occurred whereas changes in government regulation and political uncertainty had the very critical impact on political risk on contractor tender sum. The study, show the factors analysis precipitated likely trend in wages rates over the period, weather condition and carrying out the various work items and price inflation of construction manpower as well as occurrence of dispute, variation of construction program and inadequate or insufficient site information are the most factors beings considered by the contractor while estimating pricing Risk.

The work of a project is estimating Risk in contractor tender figure for public building. Therefore, risk in construction has been described as exposure of construction activities to economic loss, due to unforeseen event or foreseeing events for which uncertainty was not properly accommodated. In line with the result and findings of the research work it was concluded that very high critical impact is the defective design on the design risk on contractor’s tender sum. Inflation has the very high occurrence on the financial risk on contractor’s tender sum in Birnin Kebbi. Also concluded that political uncertainty is the most occurrence whereas changes in government regulation and political uncertainty had the very critical impact on political Risk on contractor’s tender sum. It also concluded that financial capability of client, likely trend in wages rates over the various works items, price inflation of construction materials are the major factors influencing contractors estimate in tender figure.

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